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RIsk and Security Quantification Services

WizNucleus Interactive SVG Template WizNucleus — Risk & Security Quantification Service Fabric INSPECTION MODE ENGINEERING MODE Guided Walkthrough PLAY PAUSE STEP RESET Executive Summary Quantify pathways → prioritize actions → prove closure defensibility across Ops, Engineering, Compliance, and Leadership. Risk Criticality CRITICAL HIGH MEDIUM LOW Flow legend Informs (results → decisions/actions) Informed by (evidence/inputs → quantification) QUANTIFY FTA + FMEA + Evidence → Prioritized Actions RISK DECISION ENGINE IDENTIFY Authoritative sources • Scope • Ownership FUSE Multi-source integration • Dependencies VERIFY Evidence quality • Control validation • Confidence CyberWiz-Pro Exposure • Findings • Burn-down TrakER Evidence • Traceability • Audit CAP Actions • Verification • Closure

Quantified Risk Decisioning using FTA / FMEA Tools, Techniques, and Methodologies

WizNucleus’s FTA/FMEA Risk & Security Quantification service — the core decision engine that integrates data fusion, inspection evidence, and real-world operational context into defensible, prioritized risk outcomes.

Key Value Propositions:

Illustrates how multi-domain inputs flow into a central quantification hub that drives metrics for action plans, corrective action plans (CAP), change management, and verification workflows across cyber-physical environments.

Cyber exposures and impacts are modeled using Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) — the same techniques used to certify nuclear safety systems, grid reliability, and pipeline integrity.

What clients gain

  • Defensible prioritization of security investments

  • Clear understanding of why certain risks matter more

  • Ability to explain decisions to executives, regulators, and auditors

Engineering-Grade Risk & Security Decisions for Cyber-Physical Systems Inputs are governed, validated, and fused — then quantified via FTA/FMEA — then returned as prioritized actions and audit-ready narratives. Operational States • Constraints • Baselines Threats & Vulnerabilities ATT&CK • VA • Boundary Drivers Policy & Compliance Objectives • Procedures • Evidence FTA/FMEA Quantification Cut Sets • Sensitivity • Residual Risk • Confidence Evidence-Linked Prioritization Prioritized Roadmap Risk Reduction • Sequencing • Ownership Execution Signals Validation Focus • Missing Evidence • Confidence Audit-Ready Narrative Traceability • Evidence • Defensible Closure

Core Service Capabilities​

Core Service Description

WizNucleus provides risk quantification as an ongoing service, combining engineering rigor, inspection defensibility, and operational execution. Our approach uses Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Failure Modes & Effects Analysis (FMEA) to convert complex cyber-physical conditions into clear, prioritized actions that leadership can trust and teams can execute.

We deliver engineering-grade FTA/FMEA modeling as a managed service, producing quantified risk pathways, cut sets, sensitivity analyses, and confidence metrics that directly support prioritization and governance decisions.

Service Deliverables

  • FTA / FMEA model development (initial + updates)

  • Defined risk pathways and cut sets

  • Quantified likelihood × consequence outputs

  • Sensitivity and “what-moves-the-risk” analysis

  • Executive-ready prioritization summaries

  • Model assumptions register and version control

Vertical Alignment

  • Utilities: Grid disturbance, protection failure, and cyber-physical cascade modeling

  • Nuclear: CDA pathway modeling aligned to NEI 08-09 / 13-10 expectations

  • Oil & Gas: Process safety + cyber convergence modeling (ICS / SIS interactions)

  • Manufacturing: Production interruption and safety impact modeling across OT layers

Data Fusion/Transformation Service Capabilities

FTA/FMEA-Driven Data Fusion & Transformation

WizNucleus integrates operational, security, threat, and inspection data using governed modeling and simulation workflows. We handle normalization, validation, fusion, and traceability so organizations can focus on outcomes, not plumbing.

Comprehensive Quantification Services Architecture and Processes A central decision engine informed by CyberWiz-Pro data fusion, inspection evidence, and operational realities — returning prioritized, defensible actions. Flow legend Informs (results → decisions/actions) Informed by (evidence/inputs → quantification) QUANTIFY FTA + FMEA + Evidence → Prioritized Actions IDENTIFY Authoritative sources • Scope • Ownership Module: ModSim Data Fusion CLEANSE Quality • Validation • Provenance Module: ModSim Data Fusion FUSE Multi-source integration • Dependencies Module: ModSim Data Fusion EXTRACT Attributes • Boundaries • Evidence links Module: ModSim Data Fusion CLASSIFY Taxonomies • Tags • Traceability Module: ModSim Data Fusion DISPATCH Routing • Orchestration • Run configs Module: ModSim Data Fusion STORE Objects • Evidence retention • Auditability Module: ModSim Data Fusion CyberWiz-Pro Exposure • Findings • Burn-down TrakER Evidence • Traceability • Audit Change Mgmt Approvals • Tests • Control drift CAP Actions • Verification • Closure

Service Description (Common Core)

WizNucleus provides governed data fusion services that normalize, validate, and integrate operational, threat, inspection, and policy data into repeatable analytics inputs for quantification.

Key Deliverables

  • Authoritative data source identification

  • Data normalization and validation rules

  • Provenance and lineage documentation

  • Fused model input datasets

  • Reproducible run configurations

  • Change impact re-analysis workflows

Vertical Alignment

  • Utilities: SCADA, relay, asset, and outage data fusion

  • Nuclear: Plant configuration, procedure, and inspection data integration

  • Oil & Gas: DCS, SIS, maintenance, and integrity data fusion

  • Manufacturing: MES, OT telemetry, and quality data integration

Fault-Tree/FMEA Calibration & Accuracy Services

Calibration & Accuracy Making FTA/FMEA outputs defensible, evidence-linked, and stakeholder-ready INSPECT ENGINEERING S1 Structural QA Evidence checks & model hygiene • Suppressing-gate detection (AND/0) • Completeness: missing prerequisites • QA outputs: fix list + audit notes Make pathways realistic • Convert false AND chains to plausible OR paths • Add missing enabling events (access, power, etc.) • Preserve geometry/IDs for downstream tools S2 Evidence → Inputs Input1 Input2 Input3 Traceable quantification inputs • Input1: Exposure (CVSS/KEV/EPSS) • Input2: Patch & control coverage • Input3: Defensive level / zone / criticality Inputs that move the math • Normalize scan + threat context to probabilities • Fold monitoring/assurance into mitigation factors • Maintain provenance for review and tuning S3 Correlation & Dependency Avoid double-counting and false zeros • CCF groups for shared services • Disjoint groups for mutually exclusive paths • Documented assumptions for reviewers Campaign realism • Shared footholds: IdP, jump host, remote tooling • Correlate posture changes across branches • Prevent overconfident “product of ANDs” math S4 Sensitivity & Explainability Stakeholder-proof outputs • FV importance: what drives the top event • Cut sets: why those drivers matter • Tornado: patch and defensive-level sweeps Actionable levers • What drops the top event fastest • Cross-team ownership: cyber vs engineering • Proof targets: tests, monitoring, validations tornado delta S5 Stakeholder Packages Audit-ready evidence + reproducible math • Evidence binder: inputs, sources, assumptions • Tailored import packs: nodes, quant fields, groups • Calibration notes: what changed and why Engineering-ready “what to fix first” • Top drivers + cut sets → prioritized mitigations • Ownership map: cyber, engineering, ops, vendors • Verification plan: tests, proof, monitoring closure Tailored Packs Evidence Binder Tornado & FV Roadmap + Owners
WizNucleus offers precision calibration of fault trees ensuring cyber pathways are neither suppressed by missing prerequisites nor inflated by generic scoring.

 

The result is an evidence-linked model that shows:

  • Which pathways dominate

  • What controls most reduce risk

  • What proof closes the story for engineering and inspection.

Key Service Deliverables

Structural validity checks (eliminate suppressing gates; ensure prerequisites are populated)

Evidence-to-input normalization (CVSS/KEV/EPSS + patch + control coverage + monitoring → Inputs 1–3)

Dependency handling (CCF/disjoint groups; correlated posture sweeps)

Sensitivity & explainability (FV drivers + tornado “what moves the top event”)

Confidence scoring & closure narrative (missing evidence list + verification plan)

Calibration impact: Initial FTA vs Cyber-Active Calibrated FTA Compact stakeholder view: what changes, why it matters, and what levers move the top event. INSPECT ENGINEERING BEFORE Initial FTA 6.9% TOP EVENT (MODELED) Interpretation: • Cyber pathways under-contribute due to suppressed prerequisites • Inputs are not consistently evidence-linked across ATT&CK nodes • Sensitivity points mostly to a small set of operational contributors Outcome for engineering & cyber leads: • Dominant drivers: few high-probability operational nodes • Cyber-driven DA/engineering workstation paths look negligible • Priorities skew away from cyber hardening of critical pathways Compromise core safety OR gate Chart recorder exploit Constant probability (high) Access business network AND gate prereq = 0 → pathway suppressed AFTER Cyber-Active Calibrated FTA 10.8% TOP EVENT (EVIDENCE-LINKED) What changed: • Suppressing gate patterns corrected where justified (AND→OR) • ATT&CK nodes mapped to Inputs 1–3 with provenance • Correlated what-if sweeps expose highest-leverage controls Outcome for leaders: • Cyber paths now contribute materially (no dead branches) • Priorities shift to critical pathways (e.g., Eng WS, DA network) • Tornado sensitivity quantifies payoff from patching & posture Compromise core safety OR gate Access business network OR gate (physical OR remote) → pathway active Compromise engineering WS Inputs 1–3 (evidence) → mitigations measurable Mini tornado (what moves the top event) Δ Top event when moving to stronger posture (illustrative) 0 1 2 3 Patch factor -2.0% Defensive level -1.8% Access hardening -1.4% Monitoring assurance -1.1% Hooks: data-tt-title / data-tt-body for tooltips; data-seq for sequencing; data-mode-toggle for page-level mode handling.

How Quantification Services Support Key Stakeholders

Why Organizations Choose WizNucleus

  • Engineering rigor, not checklists

  • Defensibility by design, not after the fact

  • Operational alignment, not theoretical models

  • Services-led delivery, not tool abandonment

WizNucleus partners with organizations that operate complex, high-consequence systems and need confidence that their cyber-physical risk decisions are right, defensible, and sustainable.

Cyber Program Manager Lifecycle (Quantified) Use quantification to align stakeholders, prove defensibility, and accelerate corrective action closure. PLAN Scope • CDA • Evidence • Baselines EXECUTE VA • Validation • Scenarios • Evidence VERIFY FTA/FMEA • Cut Sets • Confidence IMPROVE CAP • Change/Config • Monitoring

Executives & Boards

WizNucleus enables leadership to govern cyber-physical risk using clear, defensible priorities rather than subjective scores.

  • Understand material risk in business terms

  • Defend investment and resourcing decisions

  • Demonstrate responsible risk governance

Engineers & Technical Teams

WizNucleus respects engineering discipline while reducing overhead.

  • Models grounded in operational reality

  • Clear assumptions and traceability

  • Repeatable analysis without rework

Program & Operations Leaders

WizNucleus removes ambiguity from execution by showing what to do next and why.

  • Focus teams on the most impactful actions

  • Reduce friction between engineering, security, and compliance

  • Track measurable risk burn-down over time

Regulators & Inspectors

WizNucleus aligns security decision-making with inspection expectations.

  • Risk-informed prioritization supported by evidence

  • Transparent narratives from scope through closure

  • Demonstrated continuous improvement

Inspection Traceability Pipeline

Inspection Traceability That Holds Up WizNucleus ties each step — scope, controls, evidence, results, and closure — to quantified risk outcomes. Scope CDA inventory • Trust boundaries Traceability Anchor Controls Objectives • Implementation • Monitoring Coverage Map Evidence Procedures • Results • Provenance Inspection Defensibility Quantify FTA/FMEA • Roadmap • Closure Residual Risk Story

Evidence-Linked Defensibility

Every quantified result is traceable to scope definitions, controls, evidence, and validation artifacts. WizNucleus ensures that risk decisions are not only correct, but defensible under inspection.

What clients gain

  • Faster audits and inspections

  • Reduced regulatory exposure

  • Confidence that decisions align with documented evidence

FTA/FMEA Quantification: Program-Manager Defensibility Map Sequenced narrative from top event → pathways → evidence & closure, with legend sync and inspection/engineering tooltip modes. ⬟ TOP EVENT Compromise core safety functions ⬟ AGGREGATE PATHWAYS Attack chains • drift • human factors ■ EVIDENCE GOVERNANCE Procedures • artifacts • traceability ◆ DEPENDENCY MODELING Zones • conduits • interface trust ✳ OPERATIONAL IMPACT Mission outcomes • owners • timing ● CONTROL VERIFICATION Evidence • re-test • residual risk FTA/FMEA cut sets • sensitivity • confidence Legend (syncs with sequence) When a node is highlighted, its symbol category highlights too. ⬟ Logical gate / outcome node ■ WizNucleus workflow element ◆ Network / dependency modeling touchpoint ✳ Operational impact driver Tip: Your tooltip JS can use data-tt-*-inspect vs data-tt-*-eng when the mode toggle is flipped.

FTA/FMEA-Informed Risk Quantitication In Action

WizNucleus transforms cyber-physical risk from uncertainty into clarity — enabling organizations to act decisively, defend their choices, and continuously reduce exposure in an evolving threat landscape.
 
These interactive demos visualize the FTA/FMEA-informed risk quantification capabilities and value-propositions. Each demo allows users to explore how pathways, cut sets, and evidence contributions connect to operational impact outcomes.
Hover over Nodes for Context and Deeper Insights Continuous Assurance Lifecycle Fault-Tree Map - Radial View 1G / 2E Compromise NPP Core SafetyOR 2G / 2E Disrupt Control RoomOperationsOR 1G / 1E Disrupt Data AcquisitionNetworkOR 2G / 0E Compromise PlantManagement InformationOR 3G / 1E Compromise DA <-> PMISInterfacesAND 1G / 1E Access DA NetworkAND 1G / 1E Gain AccessOR 0G / 3E Gain Remote AccessOR BypassPerimeter/BoundaryEVENT Exploit NetworkProtocols and ServicesEVENT Exploit RemoteConnectionsEVENT Gain Physical AccessEVENT Avoid DetectionEVENT 0G / 3E Control DA NetworkAND Avoid DetectionEVENT Escalate PrivilegesEVENT Gain Unauthorized AccessEVENT 0G / 2E Execute WeaponizedExploitsAND Exploit ResourcesEVENT Identify VulnerabilitiesEVENT Avoid DetectionEVENT 3G / 1E Compromise HistorianAND 1G / 1E Access Business NetworkAND 2G / 0E Gain AccessAND 0G / 0E Gain Physical AccessOR 0G / 3E Gain Remote AccessOR Bypass PerimeterDefensesEVENT Exploit NetworkProtocolsEVENT Exploit RemoteConnectionsEVENT Avoid DetectionEVENT 0G / 3E Control HistorianAND Avoid DetectionEVENT Escalate PrivilegesEVENT Gain Unauthorized AccessEVENT 0G / 2E Execute cyber-exploitsAND Exploit/Starve ResourcesEVENT Identify VulnerabilitiesEVENT Avoid DetectionEVENT Compromise ReactorEngineering WorkstationEVENT 3G / 1E Exploit AnnunciatorSystemsAND 1G / 0E Access ANN NetworkOR 0G / 5E Penetrate ANN-RICs /ANN-ROCs / ANN-ALCs /AND Avoid DetectiionEVENT Connect to VLANsEVENT Control Switch portEVENT Identify VLANsEVENT Spoof MACEVENT 0G / 0E Control AnnunciatorSystemsAND 0G / 0E Execute WeaponizedExploitsAND Avoid DetectionEVENT Disrupt Real-timeservicesEVENT Exploit Chart RecorderSystemsEVENT Compromise IntendedFunctionality of SystemEVENT Force System intoFail-open modeEVENT
Hover over Nodes for Context and Deeper Insights ROOTContinuous assurance OR GATE2 ev Disrupt Control Room Operations OR GATE1 ev Disrupt Data Acquisition AND GATE1 ev Exploit Annunciator OR GATE0 ev Compromise Plant Management AND GATE0 ev Execute Weaponized Exploits AND GATE0 ev Control Annunciator OR GATE0 ev Access ANN Network AND GATE1 ev Compromise Historian AND GATE1 ev Compromise DA <-> PMIS Interfaces AND GATE5 ev Penetrate ANN-RICs / ANN-ROCs / AND GATE3 ev Control Historian AND GATE2 ev Execute cyber-exploits AND GATE1 ev Access Business Network AND GATE3 ev Control DA Network AND GATE1 ev Access DA Network AND GATE2 ev Execute Weaponized Exploits AND GATE0 ev Gain Access OR GATE1 ev Gain Access OR GATE0 ev Gain Physical Access OR GATE3 ev Gain Remote Access OR GATE3 ev Gain Remote Access
OSINT → Trust → Tokens → Quantified Risk (Fault-Tree View) 1G / 2E Compromise NPP Core SafetyOR 2G / 2E Disrupt Control RoomOperationsOR 1G / 1E Disrupt Data AcquisitionNetworkOR 2G / 0E Compromise PlantManagement InformationOR 3G / 1E Compromise DA <-> PMISInterfacesAND 1G / 1E Access DA NetworkAND 1G / 1E Gain AccessOR 0G / 3E Gain Remote AccessOR BypassPerimeter/BoundaryEVENT Exploit NetworkProtocols and ServicesEVENT Exploit RemoteConnectionsEVENT Gain Physical AccessEVENT Avoid DetectionEVENT 0G / 3E Control DA NetworkAND Avoid DetectionEVENT Escalate PrivilegesEVENT Gain Unauthorized AccessEVENT 0G / 2E Execute WeaponizedExploitsAND Exploit ResourcesEVENT Identify VulnerabilitiesEVENT Avoid DetectionEVENT 3G / 1E Compromise HistorianAND 1G / 1E Access Business NetworkAND 2G / 0E Gain AccessAND 0G / 0E Gain Physical AccessOR 0G / 3E Gain Remote AccessOR Bypass PerimeterDefensesEVENT Exploit NetworkProtocolsEVENT Exploit RemoteConnectionsEVENT Avoid DetectionEVENT 0G / 3E Control HistorianAND Avoid DetectionEVENT Escalate PrivilegesEVENT Gain Unauthorized AccessEVENT 0G / 2E Execute cyber-exploitsAND Exploit/Starve ResourcesEVENT Identify VulnerabilitiesEVENT Avoid DetectionEVENT Compromise ReactorEngineering WorkstationEVENT 3G / 1E Exploit AnnunciatorSystemsAND 1G / 0E Access ANN NetworkOR 0G / 5E Penetrate ANN-RICs /ANN-ROCs / ANN-ALCs /AND Avoid DetectiionEVENT Connect to VLANsEVENT Control Switch portEVENT Identify VLANsEVENT Spoof MACEVENT 0G / 0E Control AnnunciatorSystemsAND 0G / 0E Execute WeaponizedExploitsAND Avoid DetectionEVENT Disrupt Real-timeservicesEVENT Exploit Chart RecorderSystemsEVENT Compromise IntendedFunctionality of SystemEVENT Force System intoFail-open modeEVENT Hover for details • Click nodes to step sequence • Toggle Engineering/Inspection modes for inspection-safe phrasing
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